Does Cheetos’ New Mashup Make Sense?

August 15, 2017

PepsiCo will open a popup restaurant in New York City next week featuring dishes inspired by the popular snack Cheetos and prepared by Chef Anne Burrell.

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Several fast food chain restaurants have recently partnered to leverage the Cheetos brand. Burger King offered the Mac n’ Cheetos, deep-fried mac n’ cheese coated with Cheetos; Taco Bell stuffed Cheetos in their Crunchwrap Slider; and Taco John offered the Flamin Hot Cheetos Burrito. There appears to be no shortage of innovation with popular snack products.

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So does the mashup make sense? Many restaurants are relying on salty items to create craveable opportunities for consumers to indulge in impulse-driven occasions. The majority of consumer restaurant occasions are unplanned and driven by impulses and hunger cravings. But there is often a great deal of risk associated with new, innovative products so partnering with a familiar, popular consumer brand can reduce the inherent risk associated with limited-time offering.   Many mashups have had success as consumers trust the product, understand expectations and often embraces the spirit of adventure. Younger Millennial and Gen Z consumers are a strong target for these products as they are focused on what’s new and what’s next. They are less focused on health at their ages and are trying to find items that are hip, cool and very different from what their parents ate.

So how does a celebrity chef add value to the equation? Creating exciting new offerings raises the bar on interest and price points. When it comes to New York City, foodies reign and tourism combined with affluent consumers creates a unique marketplace for new appealing concepts with higher price tags. By partnering with a celebrity chef, the Cheetos concept provides immediate credibility and strong social media interest and outreach. There is little doubt the concept will build strong interest and long lines of interested eaters. If the food passes the test, the new offering can be a winner.

Darren Tristano

Forbes August 9, 2017 Link


Why Chipotle’s Southeast Asian chain couldn’t make it work

March 16, 2017

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By Becky Krystal
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/going-out-guide/wp/2017/03/11/why-chipotles-southeast-asian-chain-couldnt-make-it-work/?utm_term=.7c03019833f5

All 15 locations of ShopHouse, the Southeast Asian fast-casual restaurant owned by Chipotle, will close on March 17. The closings, first reported by Nation’s Restaurant News on Thursday, left fans distraught.

But it was easy to see the move coming after Chipotle announced in October that it was halting investments in the brand. Instead, the burrito giant’s spinoff aspirations will focus on two other endeavors: Pizzeria Locale and Tasty Made, a pizza joint and a burger place, respectively. “We just didn’t believe that ShopHouse warranted continued investment,” Chris Arnold, a spokesperson for Chipotle, said in an email.

ShopHouse, which opened its first location in 2011 in Dupont Circle, offered customizable rice, noodle and salad bowls inspired by the cuisines of Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore. It represented a glimmer of hope for diners interested in something different and at least marginally more nutritious than what was served at most fast-casual chains.

But selling Southeast Asian cuisine proved to be a losing gamble in an industry dominated by burgers and sandwiches. The top 10 quick-service and fast-casual brands, as ranked by U.S. sales in 2016’s QSR 50, an annual list published by industry publication QSR magazine, don’t include any restaurants serving Asian cuisine. The list is topped by the likes of McDonald’s, Starbucks, Subway, Burger King and Taco Bell.

Even when QSR broke out supposed “ethnic” brands — the label is a bit of a stretch — the results aren’t that impressive. Taco Bell was ranked at No. 5; further down the list are Chipotle (12), Panda Express (22), Qdoba (34), Del Taco (37) and Moe’s Southwest Grill (43). Only one Asian concept made the top 50: Panda Express, a chain perhaps best known for its fried, sticky orange chicken, which is a far cry from ShopHouse’s grilled steak seasoned with fish sauce, or its sweet and sour tamarind vinaigrette.

Those Southeast Asian flavors were unfamiliar to many Americans. Darren Tristano, president of market research firm Technomic, said that when the brand launched, he believed the biggest challenge would be getting consumers to see that Southeast Asian cuisine wasn’t outside the norm. “When your core focus is on that, it just makes it very, very difficult,” he said. He points to Mexican, Italian and Chinese as the big three when it comes to popular international flavors, while Japanese and Greek make the cut to a lesser extent.

In an interview last year with The Post, ShopHouse brand director and co-founder Tim Wildin said he wanted to work with traditional Asian ingredients, noting that Thai flavors in particular had a universal appeal. He acknowledged there was a bit of a learning curve when customers complained the food was too spicy. But there wasn’t necessarily a need to “Americanize” the food, he said, just a need to communicate better.

ShopHouse probably could have improved its communication in at least one other way, said Sam Oches, editorial director of Food News Media, which produces QSR magazine. He said the brand didn’t do enough to promote itself as innovative and unique, which is ironic given the way Chipotle was able to establish a reputation as a trailblazer in the industry.

ShopHouse was “pretty ahead of the curve,” Oches said, adding that Asian fast-casual restaurants are now increasingly popular with millennials.

In the last five years, several have opened in Washington, including Buredo, SeoulSpice, Maki Shop and Four Sisters Grill. Had ShopHouse debuted now, or even just a few years later than it did, it would have entered a market still lacking immediate competitors but perhaps one more receptive to its food. Oches expects that 10 or 15 years from now, the top 10 quick-service brands may not look too different from today, but the rest of the list will likely include more concepts serving Asian cuisine, which are just now scaling up to compete.

ShopHouse may also have partially been a victim of Chipotle’s greater struggles. Following outbreaks of food-borne illness at its restaurants, the company has seen a sharp decline in sales. From 2015 to 2016, revenue dropped more than 13 percent, to $3.9 billion, according to the company’s most recent earnings report, released last month. The decrease in net income was staggering, from about $476 million in 2015 to around $23 million in 2016. “It’s startling how far their fall from grace has been,” Oches said of the brand he described as once being the most bankable restaurant company in America.

[A year after food safety scares, Chipotle has a new set of problems]

Jettisoning ShopHouse may be at least one way the burrito chain is attempting to trim the fat and refocus on its core business, especially considering that, at the time the company announced it was pulling back on ShopHouse, Chipotle chairman and chief executive Steve Ells said that the concept “was not able to attract sufficient customer loyalty and visit frequency to make it a viable growth strategy.”

While ShopHouse only launched a small family of locations, the expansion might have actually made success more difficult to achieve, Technomic’s Tristano said. ShopHouse may have worked best as a single location or limited regional chain, he said, especially as the fast-casual market matures, with possibly not enough customers to go around.

Instead, the brand was diluted between two coasts, with eight locations in the Washington area, five locations in California and another two around Chicago. Had it been able to establish itself as a major player with good recognition in one region, it could have performed better, Tristano said.

But the locations also speak to the demographics that prompted Wildin to pick Washington for the first ShopHouse: urban, diverse, young professionals. Limited appeal, in other words, was baked into the concept before it was barely off the ground.


Joseph W. Rogers, a Founder of Waffle House, Dies at 97

March 8, 2017

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Joseph W. Rogers, a founder of Waffle House, the restaurant chain that achieved a kind of cultural renown with its no-frills menu, attentive service and round-the-clock hours, died on Friday in Atlanta. He was 97.

The company announced his death on Monday. Joe Rogers Jr., who succeeded his father as chief executive in the late 1970s and remains chairman and controlling owner, said the elder Mr. Rogers died after having dinner with his wife of 74 years, Ruth, earlier in the evening.

Mr. Rogers and an Atlanta neighbor, Tom Forkner, founded the restaurant in 1955. At the time, Mr. Rogers was a senior official at a restaurant chain called Toddle House. Mr. Forkner was a real estate investor. The two were eager to own a restaurant in their neighborhood.

Even after starting the restaurant, Mr. Rogers kept his day job at Toddle House and moved to Memphis when he was promoted to vice president. But in 1961, frustrated that the company did not allow employees to acquire an ownership stake, he returned to Atlanta and devoted himself to Waffle House full time.

“If Toddle House had offered ownership to the management team, there never would have been a Waffle House,” Joe Rogers Jr. said in a phone interview.

Mr. Rogers and Mr. Forkner expanded the chain to about 400 restaurants by the late 1970s. Today, there are nearly 1,900 Waffle Houses in the United States, primarily in the Southeast, often along interstate highways. Of these, about 80 percent are company-owned. The rest are franchises.

Borrowing much from his previous employer — down to the waffle recipe, his son said — Mr. Rogers made Waffle House into a success in part by paying meticulous attention to customers, a management philosophy he imparted throughout the chain.

“I’ve walked into restaurants where workers are on the telephone calling, looking for an elderly customer who hadn’t been in in a while,” Joe Jr. said. “So it was all about the whole personal experience, relationships.”

Famously open 24 hours a day, seven days a week, the restaurants have been used by at least one Federal Emergency Management Agency official to help gauge the severity of natural disasters.

W. Craig Fugate, the FEMA administrator in the Obama administration, applied what he called “the Waffle House test.” If the local restaurant remained open after a hurricane, for example, it meant that power and water were very likely available.

Waffle House, a privately held company, had sales of a little more than $1 billion in 2015, making it the country’s 47th largest restaurant chain, according to estimates by Technomic, a restaurant industry consulting firm in Chicago.

Darren Tristano, Technomic’s president, attributed the chain’s success to its relatively small selection of highly “craveable” offerings and its unpretentious diner-style layout.

Rivals like International House of Pancakes have significantly altered their menus over the years, he said, but Waffle House has remained relatively faithful to its original model, allowing generations of adults to dine in roughly the same setting they did as children.

“This is something that’s very nostalgic,” Mr. Tristano said. “They’re true to their brand.”

Waffle House did not escape the ferment of the civil rights era, and it was the target of discrimination lawsuits in later years.

In an interview with The Atlanta Journal-Constitution in 2004, Mr. Rogers acknowledged that African-Americans had not patronized the restaurants early on.

But when civil rights protesters arrived outside a Waffle House in 1961, he said, he responded by asking them inside to dine.

“We actually accommodated everybody,” said the younger Mr. Rogers, who worked for his father at a nearby Waffle House at the time. “A lot of people have a stereotypical view of the South, that it was total segregation. That wasn’t the case.”

He added that African-American civic leaders expressed gratitude to his father for keeping restaurants open amid the rioting in many cities after the assassination of the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. in 1968.

Still, in subsequent decades, workers and customers filed numerous lawsuits alleging sexual harassment and racial discrimination.

“I unearthed a policy of staffing restaurants on the basis of demographics,” said Keenan R. S. Nix, a lawyer who in the 1990s and early 2000s litigated several discrimination cases brought by employees and customers. One client alleged that the company had sought to cut back on the number of black workers in restaurants serving predominantly white customers.

Mr. Nix credited the company with changing its policies after these cases, some of which produced confidential settlements that he said “served the ends of justice.”

Joe Rogers Jr. said any policy changes at the company were not a response to litigation but part of a longer-term evolution. “Our law firm told us when they looked at all these things, ‘You’ve got to design better execution systems,’” he said. “It’s the growing pains of a big business.”

He blamed episodes of bias on “rogue employees” whom the company was not able to sift out when hiring.

Joseph Wilson Rogers was born in Jackson, Tenn., on Nov. 30, 1919, to Frank Hamilton and Ruth Elizabeth DuPoyster Rogers. His father was a railroad worker who lost his job during the Depression.

After high school, Mr. Rogers learned to pilot B-24 aircraft in the Army and trained other pilots.

Besides his wife, the former Ruth Jolley Rogers, and his son Joe, he is survived by another son, Frank; his daughters, Dianne Tuggle and Deborah Rogers; nine grandchildren; 15 great-grandchildren, and one great-great-grandchild.

Mr. Rogers remained involved with Waffle House into at least his late 80s. Most days he would spend several hours at the company’s headquarters in Norcross, Ga.; other times, he would show up at restaurants and mix with the customers.


‘The Founder’ Offers Nostalgia, Inspiration For A McDonald’s That’s Come A Ways Since ‘Super Size Me’

January 25, 2017

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http://www.forbes.com/sites/darrentristano/2017/01/20/the-founder-offers-nostalgia-and-inspiration-for-a-mcdonalds-thats-come-a-long-way-since-super-size-me/#58d92d12634f

I am proud to say that the late longtime McDonald’s CEO Ray Kroc and I were both born in Chicagoland in Oak Park and graduated from Oak Park and River Forest High School. But while Kroc spent his life building a global mega-burger brand, I’ve spent mine eating his burgers, French fries and drinking his shakes.

Kroc is legendary in the foodservice business. His passion, energy and determination fueled his competitive spirit and has served as an inspiration for many of today’s successful brands.

Today’s consumer may not understand the importance of fast food and its place in history. Kroc redefined the term convenience through the expansion of the McDonald brothers’ Speedee service system and gave Americans a consistent, affordable and fast option to dine away from home. The chain’s efficient systems in the back-of-house and focused customer service not only served billions but created millions of jobs. Through innovation and drive, this founder invested in a business that has stood the test of time.

This story, as told in the new movie The Founder, is a classic representation of the American dream as realized by an ambitious and aggressive salesman risking everything to invest in a blue sky idea. Choosing hard working franchisees and gaining the insight of a few smart people along the way, he was able to navigate obstacles that stood in the way of his success. The portrayal of Ray Kroc by Michael Keaton gives the audience a taste of his persistent, aggressive and ruthless tactics that allowed a businessman in the 1950s to achieve his goals and build a food service empire.

So how could the portrait of the company in this movie impact visits to McDonald’s restaurants? Will consumers leave the theater with their own renewed sense of personal ambition and strong sense of respect for an American institution or will they continue to see fast food giants in an increasingly negative light?

After spending the last 24 years doing research at food service consultancy Technomic, I believe the movie will meet with a favorable reaction from consumers. Younger generations who grew up with the brand will be able to better relate to the story and begin to emotionally connect to a brand they are familiar with but perhaps outgrew as they aged beyond happy meals, play places and fun characters like Grimace, The Hamburglar and Mayor McCheese. Millennial consumers who grew up eating at McDonald’s and often finding their first employment at there will reconnect with a brand that served them convenient breakfasts, café beverages and affordable dollar menu items. Older Gen X and Boomer generations will reminisce by finding their way back to McDonald’s for a nostalgic signature Big Mac or Quarter Pounder. They will remember the legendary jingle “two all-beef patties, special sauce, lettuce cheese, pickles, onions on a sesame seed bun” as they sink their teeth into a fresh Big Mac which can now be customized into three different sizes for any appetite.

It wasn’t that long ago that Super Size Me hit the big screen and outraged Americans. But since 2003, McDonald’s has dropped super sizing, focused on improving the quality of their ingredients, enhanced their supply chain practices supporting animal welfare and worked hard to maintain convenience, affordability and consistency across their 14,000-plus U.S. restaurants and global locations. Although this movie likely won’t have a significant effect on traffic to the stores, it’s more likely that moviegoers will consider McDonald’s a bit more in the short term and patronize a business that has been a pillar of our post-war culture.

I enjoyed the movie with my son and then we stopped in to our local McDonald’s for a couple of Big Macs and apple pies. McDonald’s has always been a part of my life and I don’t ever think the day will come that I won’t drive through or stop in for a fast food bite of nostalgia and some great family memories from my parents and with my children.

 


2017 Looking Bright for Restaurant Seafood Sales

January 10, 2017

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By Christine Blank, Contributing Editor
© 2016 Diversified Communications. All rights reserved.
http://www.seafoodsource.com/news/foodservice-retail/2017-looking-bright-for-restaurant-seafood-sales

Seafood restaurants – and those that serve seafood – are expected to perform well in both the United States and the United Kingdom in 2017.

“Right now, consumers should be in a pretty good place, with regard to the economy. All of the indicators, including unemployment, are trending positive,” Darren Tristano, president of foodservice research and consulting firm Technomic, told SeafoodSource.

As a result, spending at higher-end restaurants that serve seafood will rise, Tristano said. In addition to an increase in consumer spending, United States businesses will have increased expense accounts and take clients out to dinner more.

Restaurant chains like Ruth’s Chris, Fleming’s and other upscale chains are expected to perform well, according to Tristano.

“Steakhouses will continue to pick up, and seafood will do well in the steakhouse format,” he said.

In addition, “more polished casual restaurants” such as Bonefish Grill and Legal Sea Foods will also thrive, Tristano said.

In the U.K., eating seafood in restaurants is also expected to rise, as consumers dine out more and seek healthy, sustainable seafood. Over the last year, seafood servings in U.K. restaurants increased 2.3 percent to 979 million, as restaurant visits also grew 1.5 percent, according to NPD Group – Crest in the U.K.

The biggest trend affecting seafood served in restaurants is sustainability, Tristano said. The health, ethical and environmental attributes of meals are increasingly important to consumers, according to one of NPD Crest’s top five foodservice trends for 2017.

Sustainability is here to stay – and it will continue to increase [in importance to consumers],” Tristano said.

Consumers will continue to seek out seafood for its health benefits, according to Tristano.

However, because of the inherently higher price of seafood versus other proteins, restaurant operators need to offer a mix of seafood species at various price points to “raise the appeal of the protein.”

“For example, you can have Chilean sea bass at one end and tilapia at the other end. Or, in addition to Chilean sea bass, you can add in bluegill and other types of striped bass. You can get it down to an area that is more affordable and approachable for consumers,” Tristano said.

Seafood at restaurants is already becoming more approachable, thanks to fast-casual restaurants that are performing well, such as Luke’s Lobster and Rubio’s Coastal Grill. Even quick service seafood chains such as Captain D’s are performing well, according to Tristano.

The types of seafood dishes that will perform well in 2017 include sushi, sushi burritos, poke and calamari, “a product that is becoming more approachable,” Tristano said.

“Poke is taking off across the nation,” he added. “We are seeing a lot more poke bowls and concepts that are getting into raw ahi and salmon.”

Up-and-coming sushi burrito restaurants in the U.S. include Sushiritto in New York and San Francisco, Chicago-based Sushi Burrito and SeoulSpice in Washington, D.C.

Meanwhile, the other top NPD Crest trends for foodservice operators in 2017 are:

  • Restaurants must provide different delivery options (potentially use a delivery aggregator) to complement the traditional sit down format.
  • To maintain sales growth and consumer engagement, outlets must deliver a great experience, with a choice of quality meal options.
  • Consumers are interested in buying locally-sourced food. However, they will not accept lower quality.
  • Consumers like variety but they do enjoy their traditional favorites with a fresh twist.

Pollo Campero Sales Strong as Restaurant Chain Sees Sales Growth of 9.1% for Third Quarter of 2016

November 3, 2016

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PRNewswire
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/pollo-campero-sales-strong-as-restaurant-chain-sees-sales-growth-of-91-for-third-quarter-of-2016-300354533.html

Campero Marks Sales Momentum with New Store Openings and New Value Latin Meals

DALLAS, Nov. 1, 2016 /PRNewswire/ — Pollo Campero, the world’s largest Latin chicken restaurant brand, announced today its sales momentum remains strong as it reports a 9.1 percent same-store sales growth for the third quarter 2016. This marks the Latin chain’s 19th consecutive quarter with positive comparable growth and comes as Campero focuses on expanding both its U.S. and international footprint, while growing its Millennial customer base.

In fact, Campero has now generated a +8 percent compounded same-store sales growth for the past five years. “We are extremely pleased that we continue to see strong growth, despite a restaurant industry slowdown this year,” said Tim Pulido, President and CEO of Pollo Campero International. “Year to date, we have posted excellent comparable growth of +9 percent, positive comparable traffic growth and 22 percent total sales growth driven by our new store openings.”

Pollo Campero has seen steady growth with Millennials, with the group now comprising more than 64 percent of Campero’s customer base in 2016, according to Technomic’s Consumer Brand Metrics. Campero attributes much of this growth to the constant innovation and enhancement of its bold, Latin-inspired menu.

“Pollo Campero has maintained its relevancy with its growing Millennial customer base by introducing menu items that are true to who they are,” said Darren Tristano, President of Technomic, Inc. “Their new products are viewed as exciting by their customers, helping them differentiate the brand from the competition—their sales results this year reflect that.”

Pollo Campero’s latest limited time offer items include value offerings for individual and family occasions that highlight Campero’s signature Latin flavors. The brand also launched its new kids’ program featuring new Pollito Meals with healthier pairings and more variety for the entire family.

“We understand that our guests have busy, demanding lives,” said Pulido. “Campero’s new Latin meals are proof that families, no matter how busy, can still enjoy fresh, flavorful meals on the go and on a budget.”

Pollo Campero Expansion: Challenge Accepted
As sales continue to grow, Pollo Campero also remains focused on restaurant expansion both in the United States and around the world. Campero currently has in place a goal to nearly double the number of its restaurants in the next three years. So far in 2016, Campero has opened 8 restaurants in the United States, with 6 more slated to open by the end of the year.

While much of Campero’s growth plans are concentrated on key states, such as California and Texas, along with the Washington, D.C. metro area, the brand has recently inked a deal to open its first restaurant in Tennessee – a franchise to be located in Nashville and expected to open during the first quarter of 2017.

ABOUT POLLO CAMPERO
Pollo Campero, considered the home of Authentic Latin Chicken, is the largest Latin chicken restaurant brand in the world. It first opened its doors as a tiny, family-owned restaurant in Guatemala in 1971 with the goal of treating family and friends to its prized chicken recipe passed down from generation to generation. Today, as Pollo Campero marks its 45th anniversary, its focus on quality, and its mission to stay true to its Latin roots remain the same. Pollo Campero is committed to serving unique Latin recipes prepared by hand daily using high-quality and all-natural ingredients. At the heart of that commitment: the promise to use fresh, never frozen, hormone-free chicken paired with traditional Latin sides, drinks and desserts in a vibrant atmosphere. There are more than 350 Pollo Campero restaurants around the world and Campero is accelerating growth. For franchise information, or to learn more about Pollo Campero, visit Campero.com. Follow the flavor on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram @CamperoUSA.


McDonald’s Turnaround Fails to Get More Customers in Door

October 26, 2016

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Leslie Patton
Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-26/mcdonald-s-turnaround-fails-to-get-more-customers-in-the-door

McDonald’s Corp. has figured out how to capitalize on the popularity of its breakfast menu, stop a slide in same-store sales and cut corporate overhead. What it hasn’t figured out is how to get more customers into its restaurants.

The world’s biggest fast-food chain is facing its fourth straight year of U.S. traffic declines, according to internal company documents obtained by Bloomberg. The drop follows at least four consecutive years of customer gains.

“Growing guest counts is our main challenge,” said an e-mail recap of a September meeting among McDonald’s franchise leaders and company executives. “Over the past 12 months, we have been pretty flat.”

The only way to build a sustainable business is to show progress on three key areas: sales, guest counts and cash flow, the e-mail said. “And today we are making uneven progress.”

McDonald’s declined to comment on the notes summarizing the meeting with franchise leaders.

McDonald’s last week reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that topped estimates as results in markets abroad, such as the U.K. and Germany, helped results. The company’s division known as international lead markets boosted same-store sales by 3.3 percent. It wasn’t quite as rosy in the U.S., where sales increased just 1.3 percent.

McDonald’s has made progress in the U.S. since Chief Executive Officer Steve Easterbrook took over in March 2015, but there’s still work to be done. He’s revamped drive-thru ordering and improved food quality by getting rid of certain antibiotics from chicken and switching to real butter in Egg McMuffins. While the introduction of all-day breakfast and speedier kitchens have provided a bump, they may not be the long-term catalyst the chain needs.

The stock began climbing about a year ago after the breakfast expansion, gaining 26 percent in 2015. But the shares haven’t fared as well lately. Shares fell 1 percent to $111.54 at 9:57 a.m. in New York on Wednesday. The stock had lost 4.6 percent this year, through Tuesday’s close.

“McDonald’s has become less relevant to the younger generations,” said Darren Tristano, president at industry researcher Technomic in Chicago.

Three Areas
To lure more U.S. customers, the company is focused on three segments, according to the the document: diners who frequent the chain for breakfast and coffee, those who go primarily for lunch, and families and children.

“We’ve talked about our main focus being growing guest counts, certainly in the U.S.,” Chief Financial Officer Kevin Ozan said during a conference call last week.

Through the third quarter, McDonald’s comparable customer counts are down 0.1 percent this year, compared with a 3.1 drop in the same period in 2015, according to a company filing. The U.S. restaurant industry also is facing a broader slowdown as consumers dine out less due to the turbulent election season and cheaper grocery-store prices.

To better compete, restaurants are aggressively discounting fare with offers such as 50-cent corn dogs at Sonic and $1.49 chicken nuggets at Burger King. But those deals haven’t helped so far. Burger King owner Restaurant Brands International Inc. and drive-in chain Sonic Corp. this week reported disappointing U.S. sales in the latest quarter.

Last year, McDonald’s U.S. traffic declined 3 percent, following a 4.1 percent drop in 2014. Customer counts also fell in 2013, filings show. To reverse the trend, McDonald’s needs to stick to its core identity of convenience and affordability, while also improving ingredients, Tristano said.

“It’s hard to imagine they’re going to be able to compete with better burger and fast casual,” he said, referring to chains like Shake Shack Inc. and Panera Bread Co. “They have to operate within their customers’ perception of their brand.”