Americans Turning to Restaurants, Not Grocery Stores, for Mealtime

April 30, 2015

by Mark Fisher

http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/news/americans-turning-to-restaurants-not-grocery-store/nkxP2/picture

Restaurants cater to younger diners who are leading the trend
The Census Bureau reports that in March, for the first time since such records have been kept, Americans spent more money in restaurants than in grocery stores. Millennials led the charge. Local restaurant owners, including Dan Young owner of Young’s Jersey Dairy, say they’re not surprised about shift occurring in the dining scene in this region and across the country.

For the first time since the government started keeping track in 1992, Americans—led by those in the millennial generation—spent more money last month in restaurants and bars than they did in grocery stores.

This region’s restaurant owners say they’re not surprised at the shift in spending patterns, and they’re taking steps to attract younger diners.

Dan Young, CEO of Young’s Jersey Dairy and the Golden Jersey Inn in Clark County north of Yellow Springs, said today’s families work long and sometimes unpredictable hours and have limited time to spend together.

“Yes, they can get a nice meal from the grocery store, but if your ‘together’ time is limited, who wants to spend that time preparing the meal?” Young said. “Why not meet your family or friends at a local restaurant and enjoy each other’s company while choosing from a much wider selection of food than you typically would at home?”

The U.S. Department of Commerce reported last week that Americans spent $52.3 billion at restaurants and bars in March, and $49.7 billion in grocery stores—the first time grocery spending lagged restaurant/bar expenditures.

The National Restaurant Association reported earlier this month that despite extreme weather in many parts of the country, its “Restaurant Performance Index” (RPI)—a monthly barometer of the the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry—held steady in February, which also marked the 24th consecutive month in which the RPI signified improvement in key industry indicators.

Hudson Riehle, senior vice president for the restaurant association, said restaurant operators are increasingly optimistic about business conditions and potential sales growth in the months ahead. About 59 percent of restaurant operators expect to have higher sales in six months, compared to the same period in the previous year, up from 57 percent the previous month. In contrast, only 4 percent of restaurant operators expect their sales volume in six months to be lower than it was during the same period in the previous year, restaurant association officials said.

The association offers advice to restaurant managers on its web site on how to cater to the twenty-somethings and early-thirty-somethings who are increasingly likely to let others prepare their meals.

“Millennials view dining out as a social event (i.e. a chance to connect),” the association says on its web site. “They prefer to eat at restaurants with a lot of choices and lower price points. They tend to favor fast food, deli food and pizza restaurants over coffee shops, high-end dining and casual dining.

“Equally important for restaurateurs to remember is that millennials can be moving targets. While they develop brand attractions and support reward and loyalty programs, their allegiances can be very flexible according to their circumstances.”

Young, whose restaurant and ice cream shop are geared toward families, said diners in the 25-to-34 age group are “eager to try new tastes, probably because they have been exposed to more variety growing up.”

“Plus, with today’s amazing technology, it just takes a few tweets or texts and you can be visiting a nice restaurant with family and friends in a few minutes,” Young said. “Spontaneous is so much easier than when most of the 25-to-34-year-olds were born —when the family had one, maybe two phones at home, and families had to plan out the day ahead of time.”

Shanon Morgan, president of the Miami Valley Restaurant Association, agreed that technology — and in particular, social media — are stimulating restaurant and bar business, especially among younger diners.

“It’s much cooler to check in at the local tap room than the local grocery store,” Morgan said.

Jay’s Restaurant in Dayton’s Oregon Historic District has begun advertising more heavily on social-media sites and has launched “happy hour” specials on Tuesday and Wednesday in part to attract more younger diners, according to Amy Haverstick, Jay’s Restaurant’s owner, who is herself the mother of a 2-year-old.

“People my age, the couples are working full time, and they’re finding the easy way out — it’s all about convenience,” Haverstick said. “Life just seems to be a lot more fast-paced for our generation.”

Darren Tristano—executive vice president of Technomic, a Chicago-based food service research and consulting firm—said his company’s research “continues to show that the millennial consumer has integrated dining away from home deeper into its identity compared to older generations. They appreciate the socialization and the lifestyle element that restaurant visits bring to their overall quality of life.”

Tristano said members of the millennial generation “continue to use restaurants with great frequency, and as their spending power builds, so will their dining (expenditures). Favorable employment and disposable income growth trends along with lower gas prices are fueling the return by many younger consumers to restaurants.”

Millennials, Tristano said, “are the future, and along with them, the key to many restaurants’ future.”
________________________________________
Americans’ shifting spending patterns
March 2015
Restaurants and bars: $50.4 billion
Grocery stores: $50.1 billion
February 2015
Restaurants and bars: $50.0 billion
Grocery stores: $50.4 billion
March 2014
Restaurants and bars: $46.8 billion
Grocery stores: $49.1 billion
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce


Brisket Channel proves to be ultimate reality TV

August 27, 2014

Article by: David Phelps, Star Tribune

© 2014 Star Tribune

Remember the Brisket Channel on Duluth TV?

It was on for 13 hours and five minutes over the Memorial Day weekend.

It turned out to be quite a hit, once reruns made it to YouTube. Nearly 400,000 viewers tuned into the Internet version of the smoked brisket marathon developed for Arby’s by the Minneapolis ad agency Fallon.

So popular was the website that each unique visitor spent an average of 38 minutes on the site, watching a brisket slow cook in the same manner that Arby’s prepares brisket for its customers. It also helped that visitors had a chance to win one of $20,000 in prizes that included a 10-gallon hat, lasso and beef-scented candles.

“We were blown away by that,” said Matt Heath, Fallon creative director, of the viewership.

And the client was pleased. “Thirty-eight minutes is longer than a lot of TV shows,” said Jeff Baker, Arby’s senior brand experience director. “It was a great idea based on simplicity.”

Besides setting a Guinness record for the longest TV commercial, the brisket show and limited brisket sandwich offer set the stage for Arby’s new “we have the meats” advertising campaign that Fallon launched earlier this month.

Results for the fledging ad campaign so far are inconclusive. But Rocky Novak, Fallon’s managing director, said: “We’re seeing a lot of social media love.” Arby’s said it does not release sales figures. But when it first made the brisket sandwich limited-time-offer available in October of 2013, “we declared it the most successful [limited-time offer] in the brand’s 50-year history,’’ said a spokesman Wednesday.

Gone as Arby’s pitchman is Bo Dietl, the former New York City police detective who was the face and voice of Arby’s for nearly two years. To quote Dietl from a commercial for Arby’s fish sandwich, “Really?” Yeah, really.

In fact, the new Arby’s commercials are faceless. The only human element seen by viewers is of a person from the shoulders down wearing a chef’s jacket. A roast beef or turkey or corned beef sandwich is the star of the commercial.

“The LSR [limited service restaurant or fast food] industry is not hyper-focused on food. There are a lot of entertainment factors,” said Heath. “We wanted to see how close we could get to the food. We didn’t want to put a face in there. It’s about the finished product.”

Among the tag lines used for the new set of Arby’s commercials are “this is meatcraft,” “fear not the meats,” “meats crafted with a heavy hand” and “it will change you.”

“We feel like we have an incredible heritage of meats and that presenting them in a simple way was the best way,” Baker said in an interview earlier this week.

Brand overhaul

Arby’s new advertising campaign will be accompanied by a new branding campaign that the Atlanta-based company announced in June. The branding effort includes remodeled exteriors, revitalized interiors and staff training.

Based on some consumer testing, Arby’s message and image could use a little retooling.

According to the food industry consulting firm Technomic, sales and market share at Arby’s have declined in each of the last two years, placing the roast beef king a distant second behind Subway in the non-hamburger sandwich sector and ahead of a hard-charging Jimmy John’s.

“Arby’s is considered to be unique because its about roast beef, not hamburgers, not chicken. We’re talking about an older, nostalgic brand,” said Darren Tristano, executive vice president for Chicago-based Technomic. “Clearly there are some advertising opportunities and some innovative opportunities.”

Novak said the new Arby’s advertising campaign is all about what goes between a bun or two pieces of bread in the Arby’s kitchen.

“The main takeaway first and foremost is that this is about the meat that is put in the sandwich,” Novak said.

Tristano said Arby’s scores well with consumers on a number of metrics, including service, decor and “craveability.” But it doesn’t score so well on prices, healthy options and “advertising that makes me hungry.”

“By focusing on what differentiates you, that creates memorable and creative advertising,” Tristano said. “Freshness gives you a stronger feel of healthiness.”

And credit for a new Arby’s feel may come down to a Texas-smoked brisket that took 13 hours to cook and five minutes to carve.


With a Mouthful, A&W Hopes to Draw Baby Boomers’ Offspring

May 5, 2014

pictureA&W plans to submit to Guinness a 304-character hashtag promoting its Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Texas Toast Sandwich.

By ANDREW ADAM NEWMAN

THE popularity of the A&W Restaurants chain in the United States peaked in the 1960s and 1970s, when the number of locations — many with carhop service — swelled to 2,400, so it is no wonder that the brand stirs nostalgia in the baby boomer generation. But now A&W, which has about 700 restaurants, wants to make an impression on those boomers’ children, and the brand is increasingly turning to social media to do so.

To promote a new menu item with an unwieldy name, the Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Texas Toast Sandwich, the brand is introducing a hashtag that is itself unwieldy: #supertastylargeandinchargetexastoasttwohandwichmadewithdeliciousonehundredpercentwhitemeathandbreadedchickentendersandyourchoiceofclassicorspicypapasauceeitherwayyoucan’tgowrongwowthatsoundsgoodyouneedtotryoneitsonlyavailableforalimitedtimeImgoingtohavetogogetonemyselfareyoustillreadingthisseeyouatAandW.

Along with deliberately defying the basic hashtag tenet of being simple to remember, at 304 characters it far exceeds the 140-character limit of Twitter, although other social media platforms like Facebook, Instagram and Pinterest allow longer hashtags.

A television commercial introduced on Monday opens with a voice-over asking: “How would you describe the Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Texas Toast Sandwich?” To the sound of rapid clicking of keyboard keys, the speaker breathlessly rattles off about half of the hashtag, before slowing down and saying, “In other words, it’s a mouthful.” An end card directs viewers to the A&W website to see the full hashtag.

The brand is calling it the world’s longest hashtag, an assertion that may be difficult to prove, but it says it will seek recognition from Guinness World Records. (A search of the Guinness website yields five records related to Twitter and six related to Facebook, but none related to hashtags.)

The social media and advertising campaign is by Cornett Integrated Marketing Solutions, the agency of record for the chain. Both are based in Lexington, Ky. A&W, which declined to reveal expenditures for the campaign, spent only $876,000 on advertising in 2013, according to the Kantar Media unit of WPP. (Advertising expenditures for A&W root beer sold in stores, which is licensed in the United States by the Dr Pepper Snapple Group, is not reflected in the figure.)

A&W ranks 168th among all American restaurant chains, based on estimated yearly revenues of $184.4 million, according to Technomic, a restaurant consulting and market research firm.

“They’re a brand that’s trying to find their way,” said Darren Tristano, an executive vice president at Technomic. “It’s a nostalgia and legacy brand that is familiar to a number of Americans, but the problem with A&W is that it was a drive-in and it isn’t really a drive-in today.”

Among A&W’s 700 units in the United States, 50 are drive-ins, 200 are stand-alone dine-in restaurants, and the remainder are co-branded locations where it shares a roof with other fast-food establishments, primarily KFC and Long John Silver’s.

What A&W needs to do, Mr. Tristano said, is “rebuild their brand perception with millennials.”

Tim Jones, a creative director at Cornett, said that to reach younger consumers, the 95-year-old brand aims to strike a tone of “hip nostalgia” that characterizes older brands like Levi’s and Ray-Ban.

Rooty the Great Root Bear, an orange-sweater-wearing A&W mascot introduced in 1974, was returned to prominence in 2012 after having been, in the words of the brand, hibernating for about a decade. Today, A&W’s Twitter account, which has 7,200 followers, is written from the bear’s perspective.

“On Twitter, if you’re the voice of a seven-and-a-half-foot-tall bear with no pants, you can be a little bit more silly and more playful,” said Liz Bazner, associate manager of digital communications at A&W Restaurants. “The idea is also that Rooty doesn’t quite understand technology or Twitter, so he’d use a hashtag that would be too long for Twitter.”

In 2013, A&W created a profile for the mascot on LinkedIn, and when other users would add Rooty to their professional network, the bear would write far-fetched recommendations on their behalf.

“Using only a large-ish glass of water, he once single-handedly defended a small village in the Amazon Basin from a horde of ferocious army ants,” Rooty wrote on behalf of one LinkedIn user. About another, he offered, “He can hurl tennis rackets at small moving objects with almost zero accuracy.”

LinkedIn removed Rooty’s profile a couple of weeks after it went up, citing a policy of permitting only actual people on the site. In response, the brand posted a video in mock indignation to YouTube.

An A&W smartphone app encourages users to draw a mug of root beer for the bear, who, when tapped on his stomach, emits a hearty belch. The app, Burping Rooty, also allows users to direct the bear to recite the alphabet in belch form.

“If you’d like to grab some attention for your business on social media,” Forbes.com reported in 2013, “A&W Restaurants is currently providing a training manual on a fun-filled way to do it.”


Taco Bell Runs Naughty TV Ad For ‘Happier Hour’

March 27, 2014

taco-bell-campaign-188_2To drive awareness of its “Happier Hour,” which runs from 2 to 5 pm each day, Taco Bell is running new TV creative that’s slightly naughty, in a playful way.

The spot (in 30- and 15-second versions), from Deutsch LA, shows three different scenarios in which male/female pairs — office colleagues, college students and seniors — exchange suggestive looks and then appear to be heading out together for a tryst, as the song “Afternoon Delight” plays in the background.

But it turns out that they’re all actually headed to a Taco Bell, where they can get any “Loaded Griller” for $1, and any medium beverage for the same price, during those three afternoon hours.

The “Afternoon Delight” version is a Little Hurricane cover of the 1976 Starland Vocal Band song.

The keen-eyed viewer may notice a cameo by “America’s Next Top Model” winner Laura Ellen James, playing a college student who clearly makes the day of her much-shorter classmate when she lures him out of an in-progress lecture.

The spot started airing this week on networks and cable, and will continue running through the end of June, with additional media support through the end of August. Happier Hour is being promoted on Taco Bell’s social assets, including Facebook (10 million “likes”) and Twitter (1.1 million followers), as well as featured on YouTube.

Happier Hour is described in consumer promotions as a “limited time offer,” but it’s been running at participating locations since last year (an “always on” promotion), according to Deutsch. The current marketing push is the second campaign for Happier Hour; Taco Bell also ran a campaign last year.

The reasons behind a special afternoon event/offer aren’t hard to grasp. QSRs obviously benefit from driving more traffic during the quieter hours between and following regular meals. And offering snackable items at attractive prices has become a key strategy for driving such business.

According to a new “Snacking Occasion Consumer Trend Report” from foodservice research firm Technomic, 51% of Americans now report that they eat snacks at least twice a day — up from 48% two years ago. Nearly half (49%) report that they eat snacks between meals, and 45% replace one meal a day with a snack.

Among those who buy snacks at restaurants, 45% order from the value or dollar menu.

“There’s plenty of room for restaurants to expand their snack programs and grab share,” even as packaged food makers and retailers also push harder to grab those snacking dollars, noted Technomic EVP Darren Tristano.

And while candy is still the dominant snack (purchased at least occasionally by 71% of surveyed consumers), half of consumers say that “healthfulness” is very important to them when choosing a snack. As a result, many restaurants, like their CPG counterparts, are including healthier options within their snack offerings.


On the Horizon: Five Trends for U.K. Restaurants

January 24, 2014

The trends driving restaurant growth and innovation are driven by consumer demands for transparency, quality, flavour, and flexibility.

The U.K. foodservice scene continues evolving in unique and interesting ways. Looking forward to next year, Technomic’s analysts and consultants have identified five key trends that expected to play major roles at British restaurants.

Catering to the Millennial customer

As the influence and collective spending power of the U.K.’s Millennial generation grows, expect to see restaurant operators amplify efforts to target these consumers via foods and brands that appeal more directly to a Millennial demographic.

For instance, consumers aged 18–34 display the strongest interest in ethnic flavours. And a greater proportion of younger than older consumers indicate that it is important to them that cafés offer a variety of side options and seasonal menu items, according to Technomic’s U.K. Café Consumer Trend Report. Further, 31% of consumers aged 18–34 strongly agree that they would order limited-time offerings (LTOs) at cafés, compared to just 22% of all consumers polled.

Also watch for new mobile apps and digital tools that integrate seamlessly into Millennials’ lifestyle. Offering free WiFi in-store and letting customers place orders online are great starting points for connecting with these on-the-go, always-connected guests. Leading operators are also going beyond these steps.

Last spring, Wagamama partnered with Blippar, an image-recognition mobile application, to introduce augmented-reality place mats. Guests who downloaded the free Blippar app could hold their mobile device over (aka “blip”) the special place mats to access promotional information about the Wagamama Lounge, a pop-up concept featured at London-area summer music festivals.

Domino’s last September rolled out the free Pizza Hero app in the U.K., giving customers the chance to play professional pizza maker, rolling out pizza dough virtually, adding tomato sauce and then sprinkling on cheese and assorted toppings. A direct link takes users to the ordering page on Domino’s website.

And Apple’s Passbook lets iPhone users group their coupons, loyalty/rewards cards and more in one quasi mobile wallet—giving them quick access to their most-used or most-important passes. Last fall, casual-dining chain Harvester Salad & Grill became one of the first U.K. restaurant concepts to offer Passbook integration, and gave diners who used the app at Harvester £5 off when they spent £30.

The evolution of pubs

Classic British pubs will push even harder in 2014 to transform and grab market share from conventional restaurants by focusing more attention on creating upscale, premium food and drink (particularly speciality coffee and American craft beer); launching repositioned outlets in nontraditional sites; introducing web-enabled ordering systems that emphasise convenience and speed of service for guests; and promoting low-price-oriented menus and new loyalty programmes designed to spur customer traffic and strengthen the value perception.

Die-hard traditionalists might scoff at the idea of having a coffee and working on a mobile device at the pub, but a customer-centric evolution can help pubs maintain their relevance with a new generation of consumers.

Throughout 2013, we’ve seen examples of how pubs and pubcos are tackling the task of serving consumers who have higher expectations for food/drink, amenities and service at pubs. We expect the focus on this imperative to be that much keener in the year ahead.

For example, Orchid Group—whose approximately 250 pubs are now up for sale—realised that those establishments best positioned for success in Ireland and some U.S. cities after smoking bans took effect there were those that emphasised attractive food offerings. Orchid re-evaluated its menus and added pizza and Thai food, among other items, driving increases in food’s share of the sales mix. The company also took efforts to appeal to women.

Similarly, Marston’s PLC announced at the beginning of the year that it would install free Wi-Fi at about 550 pubs under its managed pub estate, Marston’s Inns & Taverns. The Prince George pub in Brighton, East Sussex, offers an all-vegetarian menu and a vegetarian-friendly wine list. And in August, Wetherspoon announced a new initiative pairing craft brewers from the U.S. with U.K. brewers, as part of an effort to seize upon U.K. consumers’ heightened interest in craft beer. The U.S. brewers produce their beers in the U.K. for sale at Wetherspoon pubs.

Honest chicken

Thanks in part to the recent crop of “better chicken” concepts opening in London, emerging chicken-focused concepts will flourish in 2014, a trend closely tied to growing consumer interest in sourcing, preparation and menu transparency. Pret a Manger, for instance, touts that its chicken is starch-free, phosphate-free and sourced from a higher-welfare supplier in Suffolk. Expect to see chicken increasingly described as “free-range,” “locally sourced” and “hand-battered.” We’ll also see more American influences in the form of barbecue chicken and buttermilk fried chicken, as well as simpler cooking techniques that let the quality of the chicken speak for itself.

KFC in the U.K. touts that its chicken on the bone comes from only British and Irish chickens, and that chicken goes from the refrigerator to a breading of flour and the chain’s 11 signature herbs and spices and then to the fryer within two minutes. Little Chef touts that its Crispy Chicken Platter features 100% chicken breast fillet.

Other takes on fried chicken include Scream’s Southern-Fried-Style Chicken fillets served with barbecue seasoned chips, Jubo’s Chicken Roll with Korean fried chicken fillet, kimchi slaw and gojuchang mayo, and Clutch’s Love Me Tenders, fried chicken tenders in a peanut and chilli crust.

These dishes also illustrate U.K. consumers’ growing appetite for spicy heat, also evidenced incurries that pack a little more punch than chicken tikka masala; the rising popularity of Mexican cuisine; and the cult-like following of London-based Nando’s, the fast-casual concept specialising in flame-grilled piri-piri chicken. Neutral-flavoured, food-cost-friendly chicken offers an ideal protein platform for showcasing the vibrant flavours and colours of chillis from around the globe.

Migration of street food

Fueled by younger consumers’ demand for authentic and unique offerings, chefs are looking to global street foods for menu inspiration for their brick-and-mortar restaurants. Trendy street-inspired dishes starring on menus include Venezuelan arepas, Chinese jian bing and bao, Taiwanese hirata buns and Italian arancini.

KFC U.K. got in the game last year, introducing a limited-time Streetwise Sweet Chili Wrap featuring a chicken mini-fillet, sweet chili sauce, lettuce and cheese wrapped in a tortilla. And London-based fast-casual chain Leon introduced a Thai Green Chicken Curry box, featuring slow-cooked shredded chicken thigh, roasted aubergine and bamboo shoots served on brown rice.

Looking ahead, ethnic beverages like Mexican aguas frescas and horchata will carve out a wider niche on the menu. Also watch for dynamic flavour mashups from different cuisines and the continued growth of food trucks serving ethnic and fusion street foods.

Telling the sourcing story

Transparency is now top-of-mind for operators who want to keep customers confident in their brand. Use of eco-friendly food packaging, such as recycled or reusable cups or stemware, is increasing along with a growing commitment to ethical food sourcing. Next year will bring a surge in brand campaigns communicating quality and traceability. Watch for package logos denoting animal welfare standards, in-restaurant signs documenting supplier sourcing, and marketing initiatives focusing on the use of British and Irish products.

A good example is the Olive Branch Pub in Clipsham. Its website highlights a story about head chef Sean Hope’s recent lobster fishing trip, to source the freshest lobster for dishes such as grilled lobster Thermidor and a fresh lobster claw and tail meat with lobster tortellini. The site also provides a list of the pub’s suppliers and producers—not just the names of the farms but also the actual farmers with whom the Olive Branch works.

For its part, McDonald’s U.K. invited three young British farmers to get a behind-the-scenes look at operations inside McDonald’s stores as the part of its Progressive Young Farmer Training Programme. The mentoring-focused programme, according to McDonald’s, “aims to help young people looking to work within agriculture kick-start careers in the industry by providing them with the blend of farming and business acumen needed to succeed in today’s modern farming sector.”

The programme has the added benefit of providing a fresh, interesting supply-chain story that McDonald’s—which also announced in April that it was switching to serving 100% Freedom Food pork raised on farms that meet strict animal-welfare standards—can share with consumers.

Similarly, fast-casual burrito specialist Chipotle, whose Food With Integrity philosophy/sourcing model has won acclaim in the U.S., notes on its U.K. website that it uses Freedom Food chicken, Farm Assured beef and free-range pork.

Key Takeaway

The trends driving restaurant growth and innovation are all driven by consumer demands for transparency, high-quality and -flavour, and flexibility. Restaurant operators should examine and pay attention to these trends but follow the lead of their own customers and those they are trying to attract.


Cold Fusion

January 9, 2014

2014-01-09_1101In an exercise that captured the attention of category managers attending CSP’s Cold Vault Summit, consultant and former retailer Casey McKenzie of Lexington, Ky.-based Impact 21 Group asked the retailers to consider where they would place products in a fictional convenience store.

While the specific results didn’t matter—“There is no right or wrong answer,” McKenzie said— the real message was in the variety of answers.

While one group placed beer in the back-corner cold-vault doors across from a beef-jerky endcap, another put dairy in the same corner doors with bread and other grocery basics nearby. “We imagined our store was in the Northeast, where c-stores really evolved out of the dairy business,” explained the team’s leader, Nancy Knott, category manager of alcohol for La Palma, Calif.-based BP ampm. In that region, she reasoned, consumers are still drawn by bread, milk and eggs.

“That’s it!” McKenzie said. “This exercise is not just about product placement and adjacencies; it’s about what your marketing objectives are. Much of it is driven by who your customers are and what you want to be. But it can’t all be pie-in-the-sky stuff; there has to be some science behind it.”

For three days, 35 retailers from across the country put on their proverbial lab coats to consider the science and the data driving beverage sales today. Their scientific method started with a big picture: the economy and,
perhaps more important, how consumers view it.

“I think the economy is in a lot better shape than [most] people do,” said analyst Nik Modi, who follows beverage and tobacco stocks for RBC Capital Markets. Modi said the housing market is improving, U.S. gross-domestic product is growing again and the job picture is showing some progress.

Despite that, 10 of 12 major beverage categories are slowing and the majority of food categories are declining, according to Modi.

This is a matter of psychology and how consumers think about their purchases. “The internal consumer is being squeezed,” forcing them to be more disciplined in their spending, meaning less discretionary spending
on things such as beverages and fast food, he said. “Consumers are making choices.”

Also, as spending on cars and housing have increased this year, retail sales have declined.

Calorie Concerns
Meanwhile, the continuing trend toward healthier eating also has taken a toll in more ways than one.

First, there’s the move away from products—full-calorie sodas and juices—viewed as adding to the obesity epidemic in the United States.

But the real surprise is that even diet drinks, particularly low-calorie carbonated soft drinks, are hurting, indicating the next phase in the continuing move away from the CSD category.

“It comes down to health and wellness,” Modi said. Consumers are hearing a lot of negative news about low-calorie sweeteners, particularly aspartame, that’s turning them away from the category.

“Just as consumer interest in aspartame peaked (in the first quarter of 2013), diet CSD trends began to worsen, while regular CSD trends remained,” he said. “There are a lot of companies out there chasing the lowcalorie trend. I’m not sure it’s as important today as it used to be.”

For c-stores, those more indulgent beverages are still an area of growth. “Seventy percent of what I sell in my stores have nothing to do with health and wellness,” said retailer Lundy Edwards of Forward Corp., Standish, Mich.

Still, Modi and others pointed out, the trend suggests these full-calorie categories are falling out of favor with the public.

Ivan Alvarado, director of category management for Plano, Texas-based Dr Pepper Snapple Group, acknowledged that in just the past year, the average CSD set has shrunk from 14 shelves to nine in c-stores, most of it claimed by energy drinks and bottled water. “Some of this is related to health and wellness, and some of it is self-infl icted,” he said, citing beverage makers’ hesitance to innovate, and that “CSDs have not been able to communicate with millennials. New tactics are needed to reach these consumers.”

Added Clinton McKinney, group director category advisory for Atlantabased Coca-Cola North America, “If you want to be known as one of the retailers who embraces innovation, you’ve got to go all the way and let the
consumer know that’s your play with signage and other messaging.”

“It’s all about interrupting that autopilot behavior that consumers have in the store,” Alvarado said.

One challenge for retailers is the latest generation—those 21 to 35—coming of age. These millennials are less trusting of big business, making a warning message about the industry’s oldest artifi cial sweetener resonate all the more.

“They have a very low level of trust for institution,” Modi said. Instead, millennial consumers rely on their friends for recommendations, whether it’s a co-worker they see every day or a distant but respected acquaintance they  communicate with only through Facebook.

“It’s when recommendations start coming in on social media that sales really begin to improve,” Modi said.

To that end, Alvarado encouraged retailers to call out soda makers to turn things around. “Challenge us,” he said. “Every time we walk in your stores, ask us: What are you doing to sell more in my store?”

Energy’s Boost
One of the most active beverage categories on social media is energy drinks. With sponsorships of extreme-sport athletes and unique events, such as Red Bull’s Flugtag competition and Monster’s sponsorship of skating, surfi ng and snow events, the suppliers are keeping their brands in front of their key demographics’ eyes.

“Think about all the things that Red Bull does that make someone think, ‘Oh, I’ve got to post that [on Facebook],’ ” Modi said.

Still, energy-drink sales trends are slowing. The young category overall is growing by about 5% today, compared to the double-digit (up to 20%) growth of past years. The category is maturing, and consumers have taken notice of the headlines surrounding energy drinks and the pending lawsuits that claim the drinks are dangerous. Still, Modi doesn’t think that has had much of an effect on sales.

Energy-drink sales grew 8.6% in c-stores for the 52-week period ending Aug. 10, 2013, according to Nielsen data presented by James Ford, head of category and shopper insights for Red Bull North America, Santa Monica, Calif.

“The convenience channel is driving energy-drink growth,” he said. “And energy drinks will continue to be the biggest growth contributor to the beverage category through 2017 and beyond.”

C-store retailers attending the Cold Vault Summit generally agreed that energy drinks are still a bright spot in the cooler, bringing a high-margin ring to the checkout as the major energydrink makers—Monster, Rockstar and Red Bull—maintain a busy newproduct introduction pace to keep the category fresh.

The Wonders of Water
Bottled water is also gaining space in the cold vault as the subcategory continues its march toward becoming the No. 1 beverage in the United States.

The growth comes as usage occasions expand and variety increases, said Chelsea Allen, senior manager, category and shopper solutions, for Nestle Waters North America, Stamford, Conn.

“Bottled water outsells sodas in 13 U.S. markets today,” she said. “It will be the No. 1 beverage in the country in 2016.”

The opportunity for retailers is to grab as much share as possible of the category while it’s still growing.

“Smartwater is the fastest-growing brand, and private-label [water] is growing on distribution gains,” Allen said. “But … we know that brands bring people into your stores. In fact, 44% of all bottled-water households will only buy branded bottled water.”

To improve water sales, Allen encouraged retailers to offer single-serve packaging for the three main water segments: premium, popular and value waters. She also urged retailers to stock 12- and 24-packs of water. “Nearly 6 million shoppers shop in convenience stores and buy case pack water,” she said. “But only 1% of households buy case water in c-stores. It’s a real opportunity.”

Favoring Flavor
Millennials are helping change another aspect of the beverage landscape: They’re more willing to experiment with new flavors. They join the growing Hispanic demographic in a desire to sample bolder flavors. When you add millennials’ $1.7 trillion in spending power to Hispanics’ $1.2 trillion, the result is a “structural change” to the country’s palate.

“It’s the blending of America,” Modi said. “The white consumer is taking culinary cues from Hispanic, Asian and African-American consumers.”

This led Modi to suggest beverage manufacturers should focus less on low-calorie products and more on new flavors that appeal to this new desire for stronger flavors.

“We’re at a point in the United States where companies are taking ingredients out of their products” to make them seem more natural, Modi said. “Instead, there’s not enough flavor.”

The most obvious and successful evidence of this trend is in the beer and wine categories. One reason: By 2018, 80 million millennials will be of legal drinking age, and 20% of millennials are also Hispanic, according to Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Chicago-based Technomic Inc.

For wine, the move has been toward mixing varietals to create new flavors and indulging the millennial consumers’ sweet tooth.

“The millennial doesn’t want to drink what their parents drink,” said George Ubing, national director of the convenience channel for E. & J. Gallo Winery, Modesto, Calif. For Gallo, the goal of turning wine into a more refreshing beverage has prompted innovation. Leading the way are Barefoot’s lighter, more thirst-quenching line extensions Refresh, Moscato and Bubbly; and a Liberty Creek wine packaged in a Tetra Pak to target on-the-go lifestyles.

Beer’s story has been told many times: The growth is in “better beers”—imports, crafts, higher-end brews from major brewers—as consumers seek more flavor and diversity, even at greater expense.

“There’s a definite shift away from domestic beers,” said Tristano. “Today, it’s craft beers, cider and imports that are growing. When they become too popular, that’s when millennials say, ‘Wait a minute. I want to try something different.’ ”

That, to Modi, is an opportunity. Their willingness to experiment and try new flavors gives retailers permission to “reduce the SKU capacity, but supply newness,” he said. That is, don’t feel the need to stock every variation on a subcategory; instead, stock the most popular and the newest to maintain the fastest-selling brands while providing customers the ability to experiment.

This theory is backed by research that shows a balanced beer portfolio is the most successful way to grow overall beer sales, as outlined by Dean Zurliene, St. Louis-based Anheuser-Busch’s senior director of category management.

“There’s a lot of shifting in the beer mix today,” Zurliene said. “When retailers manage it from a balanced approach—emphasizing both premium beers and crafts—they win 93% of the time.” One reason is the beer buyer’s likelihood to buy both craft and premium beers or spend money on both segments.

“More often than not, someone who drinks craft beer also drinks premium beer, also drinks value beer, and also drinks import beer,” he said. “The craftbeer shopper only spends 32% of their beer money on craft beer.”

This data falls in line with research on the millennial consumer, too. “Millennials are not the most brand-loyal consumers,” said Adrienne Nadeau, senior researcher for Technomic. “They crave variety.”

And providing that variety can be a long-term win for retailers, Tristano agreed. “It’s not loyalty to millennials; it’s frequency,” he said. “If you build the frequency, the habit with this generation, you can grow with them.”


Loyalty Programmes Drive U.S. Restaurant Visits

May 16, 2013

Smart restaurant operators have always endeavored to take care of their most frequent visitors. That may have taken the form of a server simply knowing her customers’ names and whether they took cream in their coffee. Some restaurant managers kept a Rolodex or card catalog of customers, with notes about favourite tables, anniversaries, kids’ names and other key data points. These are still valid tactics, but they require staff and managers with a keen sense of hospitality and a long memory.

Punch cards put the loyalty programme into customers’ hands. Customers carry a card that gets signed, hole-punched or stickered each time they make a purchase. The customers need to keep coming to get that 10th sandwich for free.

Restaurant loyalty programmes evolved with the digital age, and swipe cards or keychain fobs replaced many punch cards. Today these programmes collect valuable data on consumers’ purchases and behaviours, what they like and when they visit. Online and smartphone-based programmes are even more convenient for consumers and enable more data collection on the part of operators.

Consumer Insights on Loyalty Programmes
Current restaurant loyalty programme participation rates in the United States suggest that opportunities are going untapped, and there are lessons to be gleaned for U.K. operators as well.

Technomic’s recent “Market Intelligence Report: Loyalty Marketing” found that while only about one-third of consumers (36%) say they participate in a restaurant-based loyalty programme, 72% say that if the restaurant they visit most often offered a programme, they would sign up. This indicates that there is opportunity for more restaurants to offer loyalty programmes. It is possible that some of these favourite restaurants do have loyalty programmes already; here, the opportunity exists in building awareness about the programme and its benefits.

The prevalence of restaurant loyalty programmes and consumers’ willingness to participate begs the question of why someone would be reluctant to join. Consumers say they are concerned about privacy, and they demand to know how their personal contact information will be used.

  • Fully 70% of consumers say they would be more inclined to sign up for a rewards programme if they could be guaranteed that the restaurant would not pass along their information.
  • Two-thirds of consumers want to know how restaurants intend to use the personal information provided.
  • Forty-six percent say they are concerned about receiving spam or junk mail after signing up with loyalty programmes.
  • And 39% are concerned that restaurants might share their personal information with others.

Technomic asked consumers specifically which personal information they would be willing to provide to join a loyalty programme. While 60% would share an email address, only 43% would provide a home address and only 30% would provide their phone number.

At the same time they explain what their loyalty programme’s rewards are, restaurants should let customers know what they will do with their information. Such transparency can help build trust, which is a good step toward building an emotional connection.

loyalty_chart_1_450

Base: 1,000 consumers age 18+
Consumers indicated their opinion on a scale of 1-6, where 6=agree completely and 1=disagree completely
Source: Technomic 2012 Market Intelligence Report: Loyalty Marketing

Operators will also want to consider who their customers are—or who they are trying to attract as customers. Our research has found that the more income consumers make, the more likely they are to participate in restaurant loyalty programmes. This may be because higher-income groups want to be recognised for the money they are spending.

However, don’t neglect “aspirational” diners, those who go out to eat at restaurants that are just out of their reach for most occasions but are used for special occasions. These consumers may not be your key demographic, but they add up, and you would miss them if they didn’t come at all. Programme tiers could offer different rewards to different customer groups. Aspirational members may be attracted to a reward that simply makes them feel included, such as an offer to try a new menu item and give their opinion. It would tell them that even though you don’t see them every week, you value them and their input.

Developing Programmes That Lead to Loyalty
Technomic recommends three steps to moving toward emotional connections.

  • Set up a loyalty programme, offering enough of an incentive for customers to provide personal information.
  • Use the data gleaned from those users to provide compelling and relevant rewards.
  • Speak to what is important to them to build real loyalty.

Initial communications should focus on free or discounted food or beverages or other giveaways. As the following exhibit shows, the relationship will probably begin as a materialistic one, dependent on regular coupons and discounts and immediate benefits for signing up. Being invited to sign up by the restaurant’s staff or being welcomed by one’s favourite restaurant are incentives that begin to build the relationship between the consumer and a favourite brand.

loyalty_chart_2_450

Base: 358 consumers age 18+ who participate in restaurant loyalty programmes
Source: Technomic 2012 Market Intelligence Report: Loyalty Marketing

Customers don’t want to have to work hard—or at all, really—for their perks. Even when they are willing to sign up for a loyalty programme, they want restaurants to make it as painless as possible. Seven in 10 consumers (71%) would be more likely to sign up for a programme if perks were “effortless,” 59% don’t want to have to print coupons, and 39% don’t want to have to carry a physical card in order to receive loyalty-club benefits.

loyalty_chart_3_450

Base: 1,000 consumers age 18+
Consumers indicated their opinion on a scale of 1-6, where 6=agree completely and 1=disagree completely
Source: Technomic 2012 Market Intelligence Report: Loyalty Marketing

Compared to other consumers, loyalty club members are more likely to be active social media users. While 53% of all consumers “like” restaurant brands on Facebook at least occasionally, 62% of those who participate in restaurant loyalty programmes do the same. Similarly, 19% of all respondents read and/or write restaurant reviews on sites like Yelp, but 29% of loyalty-club members do so. This speaks to the importance of two-way communication with frequent diners.

To successfully communicate with frequent diners, operators must also speak the correct language and use the correct medium. Fully 78% of consumers who have smartphones and participate in restaurant loyalty programmes use their phones to access information or discounts from the programme. It’s no surprise that younger people use their smartphones more often than older consumers. It’s interesting, though, that a majority of consumers 45 and older also use their smartphones to access their loyalty programme. Savvy loyalty-programme operators will use this information and input from their own members to determine the best means of communication.

loyalty_chart_4_450

Base: 230 consumers age 18+ who have smartphones and belong to restaurant loyalty programmes
Source: Technomic 2012 Market Intelligence Report: Loyalty Marketing

Loyalty Membership Drives Restaurant Visits
The good news for restaurants with rewards programmes is that a majority of consumers who participate in loyalty programmes are likely to decide which restaurant to visit based on whether they are a member of that restaurant’s programme. And, just as higher-income consumers are more likely to join such a programme, they are also more likely to base their decision on where to eat on their membership.

Being in a loyalty programme does appear to put the restaurant in consumers’ consideration set, which helps get them in the door. It’s a good first step toward building those emotional connections.

loyalty_chart_5_450

Base: 358 consumers age 18+ who participate in restaurant loyalty programmes
Source: Technomic 2012 Market Intelligence Report: Loyalty Marketing

Darren Tristano is Senior Managing Director of Technomic Inc., a Chicago-based foodservice consultancy and research firm. Since 1993, he has led the development of Technomic’s Information Services division and directed multiple aspects of the firm’s operations. For more information, visit http://www.technomic.com.

Examples of Successful U.S. Restaurant Loyalty Programmes

Incorporating Social Media
Dunkin’ Donuts held a competition to award the title of President of Dunkin’ Nation. Members earned points for checking in via FourSquare and Facebook, and then selected the winner from among the top visitors.

dunkin_275

Offering ‘Important’ Rewards
Understanding customers creates the ability to offer rewards that customers find important. For example, la Madeleine’s Card for the Cure speaks to the core values of the chain’s regular clientele, who are mostly women. The loyalty card costs $35 up front, and gives the customer 10% off all purchases for a year. Additionally, 1% of sales goes to Susan G. Komen for the Cure. The card can be renewed annually for $25.

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Making Consumers Part of the ‘In Crowd’
Some successful programmes appeal to consumers’ psychological need to be part of the “inner circle.” The Greene Turtle Mug Club enables the chain’s customers to purchase their own mug at their local Greene Turtle restaurant. The mug is assigned a number and stays on display in the unit until the member comes in and orders a beverage. The company boasts that there is an average of 1,000 members per unit.

greene_turtle_275


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